Is it All Right with Brexit now May is gone? Chance of a “No Deal” is Real. Does May’s departure lead to a hard Brexit, without a divorce agreement? The chance seems much more significant.
The failed negotiations between the Conservatives and Labour about the Brexit already significantly increased the chance of a hard Brexit.
May’s Brexit deal, which she negotiated with the European Union, received his death sentence. In the end, there was not even a new vote, because of protest from the own conservative ranks.
Now that May resigns on 7 June – and leaves as soon as her succession is arranged – there is a chance that the next prime minister will be a hard Brexiteer.
Two prominent contenders for Downing Street 10 are Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab, both hard Brexiteers.
But whether they also become prime ministers depends first and foremost on the members of parliament. They first choose two candidates. Then it is the turn of the members to indicate the successor. According to a poll by YouGov, two-thirds of the members want a hard Brexit.
However, a majority in parliament is against a “no deal”. But how to avoid that is not clear. At the same time, the question is how a prime minister would guide a “no deal” through parliament.
If it comes to a hard Brexit, then the question is what the European Union would do. The EU promises to conclude a trade agreement with the UK only if there is a solution on the separation and the bill of 40 billion euros and the Irish border issue. So the EU may even be wary of the next prime minister.