French President Emmanuel Macron could lose his majority in the National Assembly in the final round of parliamentary elections on Sunday, according to the latest poll.
In the results of the poll for news channel BFMTV, his party coalition ‘Ensemble’ is not in bad shape as the largest, but the president would see his membership in the parliament shrink considerably anyway.
He needs 289 of the 577 seats for his majority, which now consists of 350 seats. According to the poll published on Friday’s last campaign day, his alliance is losing between 55 and 95 seats.
Macron’s great rival is the radical left-wing Jean Luc Mélenchon who emerged as the big winner in many cities a week ago. With his party coalition Nupes (New Ecological and Social People’s Union) he claims that he will again come out as the winner, but opinion polls contradict this. Mélanchon’s ‘Unsubmitted France’ and Greens, Socialists and Communists would win between 77 and 127 seats compared to five years ago. But according to pollsters, that good result means between 150 and 200 parliamentary seats, so not the majority that Mélenchon hopes to become prime minister.
Marine Le Pen’s nationalist and populist Rassemblement National (National Assembly) would also win sharply on Sunday compared to 2017, gaining between thirty and fifty seats. The formerly dominating party Les Républicains loses at least 60 seats according to the poll and then has to make do with no more than 75 seats in parliament.
Just like a week ago, the turnout is estimated to be very low. Only 47 percent of those polled said they plan to vote. That is less than June 12 last. In a two-round system, many voters see their favourite disappear in the first round and then wonder whether it makes sense to tactically vote for someone in the second round.