Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will travel to Kyiv on Thursday to mediate between Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Erdogan wants to use Turkey’s strategic position as a NATO member on the one hand and his personal relationship with Putin on the other.
The stakes are high. Turkey’s economy could suffer from a Russian invasion of Ukraine, partly because the oil price would probably rise in that case. A worsening economic situation in the country could jeopardize Erdogan’s possible re-election in 2023.
And if Erdogan’s mediation attempt fails, he may have to choose between Putin or the West, whose leaders are less and less fond of Erdogan.
If Erdogan succeeds in convincing Putin to withdraw, it could make Erdogan more popular with Western leaders, including US President Joe Biden.
“Ankara will try to use this opportunity to strengthen ties with Washington,” Asli Aydintasbas of the European Council on Foreign Relations told the AFP news agency. “It’s an opportunity for Turkey to raise its status and get out of NATO’s proverbial cover-up.”