How are Earthquakes Predicted Today?-Part 3
Please Follow Part 1: Origin and Prediction of Earthquakes-Part 1
In this final section part 3, I will explain what the methods are used to predict earthquakes today.
Most research on predictions still focuses on the characteristics of rocks and terrain in areas that have a history of earthquakes. Ground subsidence, height changes, or rising water levels in wells can all be indicators of underground tensions.
The appearance of small tears in the surface can indicate an error that takes place hundreds of kilometers underground.
In places where very heavy earthquakes were in the past, it is possible to predict the frequency of repetition by investigating soil and rock layers underground. This is a very rough method of predicting, which makes it impossible to say more than that that an earthquake, or something that appears, might occur in a few years.
In California, in Pallet Creek on the San Andreas Fault, a place where derailments were often observed in the form of disturbed sedimentary layers, an expert decided to dig back in this place and make an accurate assessment of the soil layers to discover when in The past earthquakes had taken place.
His goal was to predict earthquakes. He thought that if he were able to detect older mistakes in the earth’s surface, he could set a timetable with the average frequency of earthquakes for that area.
A history of 1400 years of earthquakes was identified, and from this, the average repetition interval was calculated in about 150 years. Since the last major earthquake on the San Andreas in 1857, the findings of this research and forecasts were creepy close to 2007.
Animal Behavior about Earthquakes Prediction
Predicting earthquakes is always an exact science. Nobody can claim future certainty, but scientists are always working to get as much predictability as possible. Occasionally, a successful prediction occurs.
In China, unusual behavior of animals was observed by zoo staff in 1969 on a morning. Swans avoided water, pandas shouted, and snakes refused to go to their caves. On that same afternoon, an earthquake with a force of 7.4 took place in the city.
Since then, and especially after the Ikeya report, scientists are carefully acquainted with all the relevant behavior of animals.
Although this seems to be a very weak way of predicting earthquakes at first glance, it is still the best method of all. In the treatment of variables, in a situation like this, where most of the variables are independent of each other, ordinary scientific predictions are not applicable.
GSN(Global Seismograph Network)
Often the scientists work with past events. If there are extensive reports of earthquakes in a particular region regarding data and power, it can be said with some certainty that an earthquake of a certain size will occur within a certain period.
This approach has grown over the last 20 to 30 years to become a standard method by the GSN, the Global Seismograph Network, founded in the early 60’s. They show that the probability of earthquakes will be increasing in the coming years.
In spite of the fact that we know more about predicting earthquakes, for example by watching animal behavior, past events and soil research. It will probably take a long time before we can predict the exact date and power of earthquake as this is a Very exact science, and earthquakes will always carry on something unpredictable.